Adam Wainwright was glad to see Jason Isringhausen enter the Cardinals Hall of Fame: "He had a profound impact on my career and helped me dramatically." Wainwright is absolutely not going to make it to Cooperstown, and the numbers say he shouldn't, but you can squint and you can cherry-pick statistics to make an argument for Wainwright if you enter with an agenda. Adam Wainwright in 2021 His lifetime ERA is 3.35 and has dropped nearly a tenth of a point over the last two seasons. . Interestingly enough, he missed the entire 2011 season for the world champion St. Louis Cardinals, but he did play an integral role as a closer in the 2006 playoffs, throwing 9.2 scoreless innings in the playoffs. Drew. Those skills may eventually result in a spot in the Hall of Fame. Once Molina has been. Now, Adam Wainwright at any age, while once one of the best pitchers in the sport, never put a season quite that good. Its just hard to pitch that long nowadays, without injuries especially. But Adam Wainwrights story also isnt complete. Madison Bumgarner is still just 27 years old, but hes already etched his name into baseball lore as one of the greatest big-game pitchers of all-time. This will undoubtedly hurt Wainwright's bid for the Hall of Fame. All stats used here were sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Stathead, Bill James Online, Fielding Bible, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball Net and Spotrac. This is the first time since 2010 that all three are in . Before going down, he made solid progress towards the 200-win and 3,000 strikeout milestones; hes at 184 and 2,653, respectively, the latter thanks to a 30.1% strikeout rate, his best since 2016. After doing some [strength] assessments, its something he can solve. When it comes down to it, Sabathia may find himself in a logjam of other similar pitchers, and if he does get in, it may take him some time. Wainwright has certainly had a long and successful career, but has it been enough to warrant enshirement in the Hall of Fame? After posting a 3.84 expected ERA in 2022, that metric jumped to 4.53 last season. While Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina are already committed to retirement, what becomes of star pitcher Adam Wainwright remains a question for St. Louis fans. It's not the be-all end-all but his baseball reference kind of shows that he really shouldn't make it. Even in the he falls short but not short enough to not make it hypothetical, the easiest path is likely for Adam Wainwright to post 8.1 WAR under both methods. Theres a good chance no pitcher will again crack the 300-win plateau, a mark that has been achieved 24 times throughout the sports history. Hes also climbed from 12th to ninth in saves (372) and should easily move past Joe Nathan (377) and Dennis Eckersley (390) within the next year. His 2.2 WAR, meanwhile, edged him closer to the career standard (73.3). Adam Wainwright K's McCormick. The starting pitcher, who will enter his 19th season with the Cards, was drafted by the Atlanta Braves. Sure there are. All picks and predictions are suggestions only. Pirates, Cardinals 2022 Opening Day FAQ - MLB.com His 195 career wins have him tied for 132nd all-time, and his career strikeouts currently have him sitting 71st all-time. His cutter was next, dropping from his 2022 average of 84.3 mph to 80.8 mph, and his curveball decreased from 72.9 mph to 70.2 mph.. Perhaps a new metric will be devised that paints Wainwright in an extraordinary new lightI cant really imagine what said metric would be, but Yadier Molinas career FanGraphs WAR shot up 18.4 wins in one day on which meaningful baseball games werent even played, so I am not going to dismiss the possibility hastily. Upon losing in the Wild Card round, the franchise's attention shifted to the offseason and what will happen to some of their aging players. Pitching to a 3.66 ERA and 4.45 FIP, hes produced a respectable 2.2 WAR, though hes still 0.6 points below the JAWS standard. While Drew was a fine player throughout his career, he would only spend the 2004 season with the Braves. He leads MLB in complete games this season at the age of 40, and is MLB's active leader in complete games with 27. This is a question that has been frequently raised throughout the season as the Cardinals' 'Big Three' (Pujols, Wainwright, Molina) were constantly praised by St. Louis fans. He became a member of the Cardinals when the Atlanta Braves traded him for J.D. The 40-year-old right-hander became the ninth active pitcher with 2,000. Wainwright was between 38 and 40 years old in this stretch. Yadier Molina, though certainly less overwhelming of a candidate than Pujols, is probably going to make it inparticularly with the modern embrace of pitch framing, Molinas defensive reputation has only improved, and his high longevity and peak scores by FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement (which, unlike Baseball Reference, incorporates framing), are well within the normal catcher standards for Cooperstown, even if the rank-and-file voter bestows his candidacy with fewer goat emojis and general fawning than St. Louis does. It may rile up some traditionalists who are married to the idea pitchers must win 300 games and strike out 3,000 batters to be considered Hall-worthy. Sometimes a little spring-training soreness is nothing more than a little spring-training soreness. Now his current difficulties are being downplayed because the leg/glute tightness, the back spasms, the finger. March 2, 2023 | 00:00:10. When the Washington Nationals took Stephen Strasburg first overall in the 2009 draft, he was one of the most hyped prospects in the games history. I sincerely hope Flaherty is fine and that theres no reason for concern. Still, just one top-10 Cy Young award finish wont get him in the Hall of Fame. However, their overall record forced the Cards to play a Wild Card series against Bryce Harper and the Philadelphia Phillies. In that piece, I highlighted 10 position players, some of whom have gained significant ground via JAWS, others who reached major milestones or simply returned to productivity after injury-plagued stretches. That seems to be a pretty good baseline.. Perhaps his national profile and general likability increases due to his seemingly inevitable second act as a broadcasterWainwright received rave reviews as a postseason broadcaster last yearand this media visibility helps him in a media-driven contest such as Hall of Fame balloting. Your existing password has not been changed. Focusing on what hes better at: Scherzer is just 19 strikeouts away from 3,000 and should reach the milestone this month, surpassing the likes of Juan Marichal, Roy Halladay, and Bob Feller on the JAWS leaderboard. But the Cardinals and the pitcher Cardinals changed the schedule for his first start; Flaherty threw on the backfields instead. He has a $217 million contract with the Boston Red Sox, and to make the Hall of Fame, he may need another Cy Young award and a dominant performance in a World Series championship. Sabermetrics lover. He was hit hard four balls hit off him registered exit velocities higher than 104 mph, including a 112.1 mph solo moonshot of a homer off the bat of Jos Abreu. Fantasy baseball: Which prospects have fantasy value in 2023? I highly doubt it. Seconds later, told his numbers stack up well to wild card-era pitchers who are either already enshrined or have solid Hall of Fame cases, the famously good-natured Wainwright a night removed from saying he struck out Jeff McNeil looking to leave the bases loaded because I like nostalgia and he wanted to give Mets fans what they want grinned again. He had one brother, Trey, who was seven years his senior. Adam Wainwright Hall of Fame. The wins, strikeouts, ERA and innings were his best since 2014, which appeared to be the last full year of his peak. Follow Cody Swartz on Twitter (@cbswartz5). Were not sure if hell be ready by Opening Day, but at this point our priority is to take care of this now so we can have him available for virtually the entire season. Hes never pitched for a World Series champion, and his career postseason statistics wont help him hes 2-8 with a 5.54 ERA, and hes gotten completely shelled on multiple occasions. We've sent an email with instructions to create a new password. He posted a 195-117 record with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.216 WHiP, striking out 2147 batters with 695 walks in his 2567.1 innings. Arizona Diamondbacks. Strasburgs 2.86 FIP suggests hes outperformed his 3.18 ERA, and his strikeout rate has been stellar. St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Adam Wainwright (50) sits in the dugout during the second inning of a baseball game between the Cardinals and the Pirates on Thursday, April, 7, 2022, at. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports. Adam Wainwright's age is 41. Cy Young awards, no-hitters, and ERA titles may be better methods for evaluating the 21st century pitcher than the sheer outdated statistic of wins.. It just was not the type of career that was worthy of the Hall of Fame. Even though three different physical problems were cited to explain Wainwrights plummeting velocity and ineffective pitching? 156-111, 3.18 ERA, 2,286 strikeouts, 126 adjusted ERA. You may have created an account with another Rogers Media account that can be used to sign in here. While these numbers are impressive, they may not be enough to convince voters that Adam Wainwright is a Hall of Famer. Jos Ramirez, third base (32.8 career | 31.5 Peak | 32.1 JAWS, +4.0 JAWS). He'll retire with honors and accolades, becoming a fine coach and St. Louis area legend. I am a big fan, not as a universal absolute but as a general guideline, of the Jay Jaffe JAWS system, a thing I have mentioned repeatedly in my writing, though I also prefer to use a hybrid model which incorporates a players career performance and his seven best individual seasons (his peak) as measured not only by Baseball Reference but by FanGraphs (in most non-catcher cases, over the course of a career, this doesnt make a huge difference, but in the most discussed cases, the margins are so thin that I am happy to look at as much data as possible). For relievers, Im using the WAR-and-WPA hybrid stat via which Ive examined recent candidates such as Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, and Billy Wagner. Guerrero is on the Dominican Republic roster for this months World Baseball Classic. Wainwright, 40, who has played for the Cardinals since reaching the majors in 2005, is a three-time All-Star and twice led the National League in wins (2009 and 2013). At 41-years-old, Adam Wainwright's statistics suggest no signs of slowing down. Chris Sale keeps getting better with age, and with the way hes ben mowing down hitters in a 2017 free agent year, hes going to earn a lucrative $200 million deal in the offseason. Wainwright had won nine of 10 decisions coming in. He made his 55 million dollar fortune with All-Star, St. Louis Cardinals, NL wins leader. Sabathia has largely been a disappointment since signing a nine-figure extension with the team, and he likely wont be retained when his contract expires after this season. Gerrit Cole (117 wins at age 31) and Chris Sale (114 wins at age 32) are the likeliest active pitchers to approach Wainwrights total. Adam Wainwright Deserves Serious Hall of Fame Consideration St. Louis Cardinals: Bad luck, bad timing hurt Wainwright's pedigree Adam Wainwright Stats. But theres no alarm. Not an injury issue? The pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign, in which Wainwright went 5-3 with a 3.15 ERA in 10 starts, amounted to a fourth lost season for the right-hander, who missed all of 2011 recovering from Tommy John surgery and made just seven appearances (four starts) due to a torn Achilles in 2015 before he was limited to eight starts by right elbow inflammation in 2018. . Who Are the Next Pitchers to Make the Baseball Hall of Fame? With eight All-Star selections, three Cy Young awards, and a World Series ring, Kershaw is probably a lock for election already, but reaching and surpassing some major career milestones would further elevate him in the pantheon. Ive covered the Mets for a variety of outlets since 1997. Has Yadier Molina Successfully Framed His Hall of Fame Case? But is it a Hall of Fame caliber career? We use cookies to improve your experience. Gibson, who died last October, finished with 3,117. He entered Thursday 16-7 on. 3rd stage: Well, his arm hasnt rebounded the way we were hoping for, so were just going to shut him down and see how he responds. But what is particularly interesting to examine with regards to Wainwright is that if Wainwright were elected, he would not even be close to the worst starting pitcher in Cooperstown. But at least it wont be historically egregious. Required fields are marked *. 82-53, 2.99 ERA, 1,380 strikeouts, 138 adjusted ERA. Outside of Clayton Kershaw, he may be the most dominant pitcher in the game right now; FanGraphs credits Scherzer with more WAR than any non-Kershaw pitcher (25.9) since 2013. This doesnt mean that Wainwright definitely deserves to make itTim Hudson, who barely qualified for a second turn on the BBWAA ballot and didnt receive the 5% of votes needed to qualify for a third, ranks ahead of him, for instance. Me talking about it is going to inflame some people Hes not a Hall of Famer! Wainwright said. What injury? Alas, just before the All-Star break, the 33-year-old southpaw landed on the injured list due to inflammation in his left forearm and hasnt even gotten to the point of a rehab stint yet after suffering a setback in late July. Terms of Service. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, What would Adam Wainwright need to do in 2022 to deserve Hall of Fame induction? Were not concerned. However, not all stories have happy endings. An Alternate Hall of Fame populated by a mathematical formula. What's the Dodgers' plan at shortstop? Moving to Adam Wainwright, the 40-year-old moved into second in pitching WAR (again, as calculated by Baseball Reference) last season, and that is where he will stay. 2020 has given us many. He surpassed 200 wins in 2019 (hes at 219 now), but with his strikeout rate dipping from 24.5% last year to 17.0% this year, hes still 201 strikeouts away from 3,000 and will probably need two seasons to reach the milestone instead of one. 76-43, 3.18 ERA, 1,183 strikeouts, 124 adjusted ERA. Adam Wainwright never won a Cy Young Award. Nelson Cruz, right field (42.2 career | 30.1 Peak | 36.1 JAWS, +1.3 JAWS). St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright joins Scott Braun, Erik Kratz, Todd Frazier, and AJ Pierzynski to talk about his final season and the legacy he's. All WAR (and WPA) figures here refer to the Baseball Reference version, unless otherwise indicated. What a different story we could be telling about 'Waino' had he stayed in Atlanta. Bernie invites you to listen to his opinionated and analytical sports-talk show on 590 The Fan, KFNS-AM. Thats an average of 174 innings per year. Adam Wainwright will make history as he will become the seventh pitcher in St. Louis Cardinals history to start a game after his 41st birthday. 163-103, 3.40 ERA, 2,125 strikeouts, 122 adjusted ERA. Adam Wainwright is going to have such an interesting Hall of Fame case once he retires. One other thing to note: since my reference point for old WAR and JAWS figures dates back to January 2021, some portion of these players gains may be due to updates to bWAR itself, particularly via changes to 19 and 20 park factors and tweaks to 201720 Defensive Runs Saved that were announced in March, but also due to a second update to 2020 park factors that just went live on Tuesday. The bad news is that hell finish his age-35 season still short of 1,200 hits (hes at 1,156), meaning that hed have to average at least 160 a total he hasnt reached since 2016 through his age-40 season just to reach the all-important 2,000. While Pujols and Molina are guaranteed to enter the Hall of Fame, Wainwright's case is a tricky one to say the least. Five years ago, Max Scherzer had no Hall of Fame case. St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright joins Scott Braun, Erik Kratz, Todd Frazier, and AJ Pierzynski to talk about his final season and the legacy he's left behind. One Wainwright is a lot closer to establishing than perhaps even he realizes. But over the last three seasons, Jack has pitched only 154 innings. For starters, no pitcher can stay that good for that long. Is Adam Wainwright Hall of Fame or Hall of Very good? Chapman notched his 300th save on August 26, but hes had an unimpressive season, walking 16.2% of hitters en route to a 3.68 ERA and 4.16, all career worsts. Still, hes won 230 games, led the league in wins twice, and won a Cy Young award and a World Series ring. The Hall of Fame should immortalize the greatest starting pitchers of each era. Halladay and Martinez combined to win five Cy Youngs had more dominant peaks than Wainwright, but their status as first-ballot Hall of Famers serve as evidence the electorate is already modifying its standards for Hall-worthy starting pitchers. No ones winning 300 games again, probably, Maybe there will be a couple guys that have a chance Claytons got a chance, Max maybe. Wainwright went 41-28 with a 4.58 ERA (an ERA+ of 90, or 10 percent below league average) from 2016 through 2019. St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright may have ended a solid career. Its my belief that this as-yet-unnamed metric which Im hoping to formalize in time for the upcoming election cycle does a better job of emphasizing closers rather than starters-turned-relievers who racked up significant WAR in the rotations before making the move to roles more fireman-like than closer-like; it bumps the likes of Tom Gordon, Ellis Kinder, Bobby Shantz, and Kerry Wood down several pegs. But its just not going to happen anymore the way pitchers are used now and the way free agency is and (how) careers go. I wouldnt expect Wainwright to be at his best at this stage. Will the games most enigmatic Hall of Fame candidate, a pending free agent this winter, stick around to get it? Well know more about Jacks Comeback after he makes his first two or three pitching appearances in the Florida game. Its an impressive resume, and one that has him as a top-10 starting pitcher of the last decade, but its just not enough for Cooperstown. May need surgery, but were not close to making any kind of decision on that. But if it wasn't for . It is not as though a 6.4 WAR season alone would do the trickwhile this would put Wainwright over 50 bWAR and at 56.4 fWAR (assuming he hit 6.4 on both metrics), the impact on Wainwrights peak would be much smaller, since he was reasonably good in his seventh best season under both metrics (3.0 bWAR, 3.9 fWAR). Molina should make the Baseball Hall of Fame while Wainwright will probably fall short, but even so, we need to enjoy the final season with the longtime battery mates on the . Jansens 30 saves have pushed him to 14th on the all-time list, five away from the next rung and 26 away from cracking the top 10. Im far less convinced he deserves that, but using FanGraphs framing-inclusive WAR for catchers (supplemented by Baseball Prospectus pre-2008 framing data), its clear that he deserves a boost beyond off-the-shelf JAWS. It's a career that includes 10 All-Star Games, nine Gold Gloves, four Platinum Gloves, two World Series titles and plenty of adulation from the St. Louis area and beyond. What a career Adam Wainwright and Yadier Molina have shared together! Gibson, who died last October, finished with 3,117. He has put together a solid career, posting a 193-114 record with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.208 WHiP over his 2538.2 innings . DRS changes, injuries, and the shortened season have dealt the slugging third basemans case a set of blows in recent years, making it even harder to overcome his late start. 34. The good news is that even with a modest 2.6 WAR this year, hes in his seventh-best season and can make tracks towards the third base peak standard (43.1 WAR). I suppose well get an update after Wainwright returns to camp after competing for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic. Sale went two years and a day between major league outings due to elbow inflammation, a flexor tendon strain, and Tommy John surgery, but hes made a solid return so far, with a 2.53 ERA and 27.9% strikeout rate through four starts. Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright are back together, and they will start Opening Day together for the first time since 2009 on Thursday. The content on this site is for entertainment and educational purposes only. What would Adam Wainwright need to do in 2022 to deserve Hall of Fame Strikeouts are booming like never before. Your email address will not be published. At age 33, hes signed for another four years after this campaign, so he should have sufficient time to make a run at 3,000 strikeouts and another Cy Young award. The minute Adam Wainwright is eligible, he will easily cruise into the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame, with the only possible road block being if he gets caught in the midst of a logjam with Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina (though if the Cardinals were ever going to make an exception and admit three people in one year, this would seemingly be the case).
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